Golden-cross as the “grail” of returns
Source: a claim that a moving-average crossover steadily beats the market.
What the stand showed
The claim
The classic golden-cross (a crossover of moving averages) was presented as a reliable way to beat the market.
What the stand showed
On history the strategy did beat “buy and hold” by about 40%. But there is essentially one trade across the whole period — that is not enough to tell skill from luck. Deflated Sharpe 0.33 — a correction for chance: the strategy did not pass the “maybe it just got lucky” check.
Verdict
On the stand. Neither refuted nor confirmed: too little data. It needs a longer, more varied period before it can be trusted.
Seal · verify it yourself
Seal in preparationThis early case predates our public seal pipeline, so no Bitcoin timestamp was issued for it. Newer verdicts are sealed: a SHA-256 fixes the report’s content and an OpenTimestamps stamp fixes its date in Bitcoin — so a verdict can’t be quietly rewritten after the fact.
How sealing works →